Abstract: We study changes in markups across 72 product markets from 2006 to 2018. A growing literature has documented a rise in markups over time using a production function approach; we instead employ the standard microeconomic method, which is to estimate demand and then invert firms’ first-order pricing conditions to infer their markups. To make the method scalable, we propose estimating nested logit demand models, using household panel data to automate the assignment of products to nests. Our results indicate an overall upward trend in markups between 2006 and 2018, with considerable heterogeneity across and within product markets. We find that changes in firms’ marginal costs and households’ price sensitivity are the primary drivers of markup increases with changes in firm ownership playing a much smaller role.

Abstract: We investigate the impact of a set of place-based subsidies introduced in Turkey in 2012. Using firm-level balance-sheet data along with data on the domestic production network, we first assess the policy’s direct and indirect impacts. We find an increase in economic activity in industry-province pairs that were the focus of the subsidy program, and positive spillovers to the suppliers and customers of subsidized firms. With the aid of a dynamic multi-region, multi-industry general equilibrium model, we then assess the program’s impacts. Based on the calibrated model, we find that, in the long run, the subsidy program is modestly successful in reducing inequality between the relatively underdeveloped and more prosperous portions of the country. These modest longer-term effects are due to the ability of households to migrate in response to the subsidy program and to input-output linkages that traverse subsidy regions within Turkey.

Abstract: We propose a new measure of firms' technology adoption, based on the types of employees they seek. We construct firm-year level measures of emerging and disappearing work using ads posted between 1940 and 2000 in the Boston Globe, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal. Among the set of publicly listed firms, those which post ads for emerging work tend to be younger, more R&D intensive, and have higher future sales growth. Among all firms, those which post ads for emerging work are more likely survive and, for privately held firms, are more likely to go public in the future. We develop a model -- consistent with these patterns -- with incumbent job vintage upgrading and firm entry and exit. Our estimated model indicates that 55 percent of upgrading occurs through the entry margin, with incumbents accounting for the remaining 45 percent.

Abstract: We introduce new measurement tools to understand the sources of earnings differences across space. Based on the natural language employers use in job ads, we develop granular measures of job tasks and of worker specialization. We find that jobs in larger commuting zones involve greater interpersonal interactions and have higher computer software requirements. Between 10 and 50 percent of task and technology variation between large and small commuting zones exists within occupations. Further, workers in larger markets are more specialized. Tasks, technologies, and worker specialization account for a substantial portion of the market size premium even within occupations.

Abstract: We examine merging firms' additions and removals of products for a sample of 66 mergers across a wide variety of consumer packaged goods markets. We find that mergers lead to a net reduction in the number of products offered by merging firms. Merging firms tend to both drop and add products at the periphery of their joint product portfolios, with the net effect of increasing within-firm product similarity. These results are consistent with theories of the firm that emphasize cost synergies among similar types of products or managerial core competencies linked to particular segments of the product market.

Abstract: This paper explores trends in time alone and with others in the United States. Since 2003, Americans have increasingly spent their free time alone, on leisure at home, and have decreasingly spent their free time with individuals from other households. These trends are more pronounced for non-white individuals, for males, for the less educated, and for individuals from lower-income households. Survey respondents who spend a large fraction of their free time alone report lower subjective well-being. As a result, differential trends in time alone suggest that between-group subjective well-being inequality may be increasing more quickly than previous research has reported.

Abstract: Using the text from job ads, we introduce a new data set to describe the evolution of work from 1950 to 2000. We show that the transformation of the U.S. labor market away from routine cognitive and manual tasks and toward nonroutine interactive and analytic tasks has been larger than prior research has found, with a substantial fraction of total changes occurring within narrowly defined job titles. We provide narrative and systematic evidence on changes in task content within job titles and on the emergence and disappearance of individual job titles.

Abstract: We examine the within- and across-firm shipment decisions of tens of thousands of goods-producing and distributing establishments. This allows us to quantify the normally unobservable forces that determine firm boundaries; which transactions are mediated by ownership control, as opposed to contracts or markets. We find firm boundaries to be an economically significant barrier to trade: having an additional vertically integrated establishment in a given destination zip code has the same effect on shipment volumes as a 40 percent reduction in distance. We then calibrate a multi- sector trade model to quantify the economy-wide implications of transacting across vs. within firm boundaries.

Abstract: Using newspaper job ad text from 1960 to 2000, we measure job tasks and the adoption of individual information and communication technologies (ICTs). Most new technologies are associated with an increase in nonroutine analytic tasks, and a decrease in nonroutine interactive, routine cognitive, and routine manual tasks. We embed these interactions in a quantitative model of worker sorting across occupations and technology adoption. Through the lens of the model, the arrival of ICTs broadly shifts workers away from routine tasks, which increases the college premium. A notable exception is the Microsoft Office Suite, which has the opposite set of effects.

Abstract: Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth.

Abstract: I quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to business cycle fluctuations in aggregate output. I develop and estimate a multi-industry general equilibrium model in which each industry employs the material and capital goods produced by other sectors. Using data on U.S. industries' input prices and input choices, I find that the goods produced by different industries are complements to one another as inputs in downstream industries' production functions. These complementarities indicate that industry-specific shocks are substantially more important than previously thought, accounting for at least half of aggregate volatility.

Abstract: There is substantial within-industry variation in the prices that plants pay for their material inputs. Using plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I explore the consequences and sources of this variation in materials prices. For a sample of industries with relatively homogeneous products, the standard deviation of plant-level productivity would be 7% smaller if all plants faced the same materials prices. Moreover, plant-level materials prices are persistent, spatially correlated, and positively associated with the probability of exit. The contribution of entry and exit to aggregate productivity growth is smaller for productivity measures that are purged of materials price variation. After documenting these patterns, I discuss three potential sources of materials price variation: geography, differences in suppliers' marginal costs, and within-supplier markup differences. Together, these variables explain 15% of the variation of materials prices.

Abstract: We use broad-based yet detailed data from the economy's goods-producing sectors to investigate firms' ownership of production chains. It does not appear that vertical ownership is primarily used to facilitate transfers of goods along the production chain, as is often presumed: Roughly one-half of upstream establishments report no shipments to downstream establishments within the same firm. We propose an alternative explanation for vertical ownership, namely that it promotes efficient intra-firm transfers of intangible inputs. We show evidence consistent with this hypothesis, including the fact that, after a change of ownership, an acquired establishment begins to resemble the acquiring firm along multiple dimensions.

Abstract: What explains the large variation in the number of contacts (degree) that different participants of social networks have: age, randomness, or some unobservable fitness measure? To answer this question, I extend the model presented in Jackson and Rogers (2007) to allow individuals to vary in their ability to attract contacts. I estimate the parameters of the extended model, using a social network of citations among high-energy physics papers, and find that the extended Jackson-Rogers model can parsimoniously fit the degree distribution of each age cohort. Moreover, both the length of time spent in the network and the unobservable fitness measure are important in explaining the observed variation in participants' degrees.

Abstract: Complex social networks have received increasing attention from researchers. Recent work has focused on mechanisms that produce scale-free networks. We theorsetically and empirically characterize the buyer-supplier network of the US economy and find that purely scale-free models have trouble matching key attributes of the network. We construct an alternative model that incorporates realistic features of firms' buyer-supplier relationships and estimate the model's parameters using microdata on firms' self-reported customers. This alternative framework is better able to match the attributes of the actual economic network and aids in further understanding several important economic phenomena.

Abstract: We explore the network topology of the federal funds market. This market is important for distributing liquidity throughout the financial system and for the implementation of monetary policy. The recent turmoil in global financial markets underscores its importance. We find that the network is sparse, exhibits the small-world phenomenon, and is disassortative. Centrality measures are useful predictors of the interest rate of a loan.

Abstract: This paper attempts to quantify the benefits associated with operating a liquidity-saving mechanism (LSM) in Fedwire, the large-value payment system of the Federal Reserve. Calibrating the model of Martin and McAndrews (2008), we find that potential gains are large compared to the likely cost of implementing an LSM, on the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars per day.

Abstract: This paper considers the welfare effects of introducing a liquidity-saving mechanism (LSM) in a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) payment system. We study the planner's problem to get a better understanding of the economic role of an LSM and find that an LSM can achieve the planner's allocation for some parameter values. The planner's allocation cannot be achieved without an LSM, as long as some payments can be delayed without cost. In equilibrium with an LSM, we show that there can be either too few or too many payments settled early compared with the planner's allocation, depending on the parameter values.